In recent years, the global economy has been exposed to multiple shocks, leading to a significant increase in uncertainty and rendering expectation management an essential component of macroeconomic policy. Behavioral economics, by in corporating cognitive biases and psychological factors, challenges the idealized assumption of the "rational economic man" embedded in traditional expectation theories. It thereby constructs a more realistic analytical framework that provides theoretical support for achieving the policy objectives of "stabilizing expectations" and "improving expectation management mechanisms." Nevertheless, in China, research on expectations from a behavioral perspective remains at a preliminary stage. There is an urgent need to integrate the country's unique institutional and cultural context in order to further advance the application and development of expectation studies.

    Against this backdrop, we systematically reviews the domestic and international literature on behavioral and experimental studies of economic expectations. Building on traditional expectation theories, it focuses on explicating two key concepts in behavioral economics, which is incomplete-information rational expectations and bounded rational expectations, and summarizes the research progress on expectations within the behavioral economics framework in the fields of microeconomics, macroeconomics, and finance. In addition, the article discusses methodological innovations in experimental approaches to expectation research, including survey-based experiments and laboratory experiments such as exogenous process forecasting, learning forecasting, and learning optimization.

    Looking ahead, expectation research should continue to optimize experimental methodologies, streamline processes, and reduce estimation biases. More importantly, it should align more closely with China's specific institutional environment and cultural context, ensuring that theoretical frameworks and empirical methods remain relevant to local conditions. Through such localization, expectation research from a behavioral economics perspective can play a pivotal role in boosting household confidence, guiding firm-level decision-making, and maintaining financial stability. In this way, it will provide solid theoretical support and practical guidance for macroeconomic policymaking, not only in mitigating short-term uncertainties but also in sustaining the long-term goal of high-quality economic development.

    Based on the theoretical framework of "creative destruction" of unbalanced unemployment, this paper explores the dual impact of the development of new quality productive forces on enterprise employment under the new round of industrial revolution driven by digital technology. The theoretical analysis points out that the new quality productive forces has both substitution and creation effects on employment by improving the total factor productive forces and optimizing the substitution of factors under the optimization of resource allocation, and this process is affected by the adjustment of enterprise scale. By innovatively measuring the development level of new quality productive forces at the enterprise level and based on the micro data of China's listed companies from 2012 to 2022, the existence of the above theoretical predictions and mechanisms is confirmed. At this stage, the "destructiveness" of the substitution effect surpasses the creation effect and inhibits the total employment. However, the creation effect has significantly promoted the upgrading of labor factors such as human capital accumulation, indicating that the development of new quality productive forces is conducive to promoting high-quality and full employment. Evidence of intra-firm income disparities and human-machine synergies provides further corroboration. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the substitution effect of new productive forces on low-skilled labor force and the creation effect of middle and high skills are more significant in non-state-owned enterprises, non-high-tech industries, developed factor market areas and enterprises in eastern China. This study provides micro evidence for understanding the reshaping of employment structure by new quality productive forces, and opens up new ideas for effectively coping with the adverse shocks and challenges that may be caused by them and promoting high-quality employment.

Comprehensive land consolidation is an important strategic measure for the overall optimization of urban and rural spatial layout. Comprehensive land consolidation in the whole region provides opportunities and platforms for the development and growth of the new rural collective economy by more fully tapping the potential of rural land and building an interactive mechanism for relevant interest groups. Based on the logic clue of "resource mobilization - factor integration - multiple synergy", this paper analyzes the case of the comprehensive land consolidation in Conghua District, Guangzhou, and finds that to jointly promote the comprehensive land consolidation and the development of the new rural collective economy and solve the dilemma of "lack of money, land, people and industry" in the development of the new rural collective economy, we need to further play the function of collective "unity", adhere to the combination of the promising government and the effective market, pool the strength of multiple subjects, reach a consensus on collective action, build a long-term mechanism of "government led, multiple participation and concerted action", and form a strong joint force to jointly promote the development and growth of the new rural collective economy. Based on the interaction mechanism of multiple synergy, this paper sorts out the basis and action logic of multiple synergy, and puts it into the framework of the coordinated development of the comprehensive land consolidation and the new rural collective economy. It reveals the mechanism and effect of driving the participation of multiple actors in the process of comprehensive land consolidation, especially the participation of rural collective economic organizations, which has important "double" enlightening value for the coordinated promotion of the comprehensive land consolidation and the development and growth of the new rural collective economy.

    The bioeconomy is a key manifestation of New Quality Productive Forces, and measuring its overall scale is essential for understanding China's development trajectory and achieving high-quality growth. Drawing on the conceptual framework of the bioeconomy, this study constructs a three-sector classification system with international comparability and, based on input-output table data, systematically evaluates the scale, structural evolution, and growth drivers of China's bioeconomy from 1995 to 2020, alongside comparative analysis with major economies. The findings indicate that China's bioeconomy has maintained steady and sustained growth, demonstrating strong development potential and resilience. In terms of structure, the primary bio-based production sector remains dominant, though its share has declined over time, while the proportions of the secondary and tertiary bio-based sectors have gradually increased, reflecting an improving internal structure. However, compared with advanced economies, the share of the primary sector in China remains disproportionately high, suggesting further room for structural adjustment. Growth decomposition reveals that the expansion of China's bioeconomy is mainly driven by rapid increases in industrial value added, indicating an extensive growth pattern. Accordingly, consolidating the scale foundation, optimizing the internal structure, and enhancing competitiveness through technological innovation and diversification are essential. The results provide quantitative evidence and international benchmarks for the transformation, upgrading, and policy refinement of China's bioeconomy.

    The stable development of the real estate market is essential for preventing systemic financial risks and safeguarding public welfare. In recent years, China has been confronted with mounting challenges in the real estate sector, including a sustained decline in real estate development investment, persistently weakening expectations, and a sharp downturn in property sales. Against this backdrop, how to effectively coordinate and optimize a broad range of real estate policies to promote the stable development of the sector has become a pressing and significant topic for research. This paper constructs a DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model that captures the role of dual-pillar policies in supporting the stable development of the real estate market. The model incorporates public expectations—such as housing price expectations and housing preference expectations—and differentiates between anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy shocks. Using numerical simulation methods, the study evaluates the effectiveness of various real estate policies and policy combinations. Impulse response analysis shows that both optimistic and pessimistic housing price expectations can drive up leverage and increase the probability of financial risk, whether in the context of past housing booms or during the post-2021 downturn marked by weakened expectations. Counterfactual simulations suggest that a sequence of contractionary monetary policies can help anchor public expectations toward sustained tightening, thereby effectively containing excessive housing price growth observed in the past. In terms of policy effectiveness, accommodative monetary policy and its associated expectations can help stabilize housing prices and stimulate economic growth, but at the cost of rising leverage, which complicates risk management. When combined with countercyclical macroprudential measures, however, the dual-pillar policy framework can simultaneously stabilize housing prices, restrain leverage expansion, and reduce macroeconomic volatility—thereby promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. This paper clarifies the transmission mechanism linking dual-pillar policies,public policy expectations, housing prices, and the broader real estate market. It provides valuable insights for optimizing and coordinating the dual-pillar policy framework to support long-term stability in the real estate sector.

    Corporate carbon footprints are predominantly concentrated within supply chains, significantly surpassing the emissions generated by firms' internal production processes. Consequently, firms possess strong incentives to transfer emissionreduction pressures upstream, particularly influencing their supplier selection strategies. Utilizing legitimacy theory as a conceptual framework and employing a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) research design, this study empirically investigates how China's Green Factory policy influences corporate supplier selection behavior. Specifically, this study leverages panel data from Chinese publicly listed companies spanning from 2013 to 2021, identifying causal effects derived from the staggered implementation of the policy across different firms and time periods. Empirical findings robustly demonstrate that firms receiving the Green Factory designation exhibit a significantly increased propensity to engage with environmentally compliant ("green") suppliers in their procurement activities.

    Mechanism analyses grounded in legitimacy theory suggest that the observed shift toward greener suppliers primarily stems from firms' efforts to secure legitimacy approval from key external stakeholders, including local governments, the general public, and institutional investors. Firms designated as Green Factories seek practical legitimacy from local governments,aiming to align their procurement strategies with regional environmental policies and thereby secure regulatory support and preferential treatment. Moreover, they pursue moral legitimacy from the broader public, enhancing corporate image and consumer trust by visibly adhering to societal expectations regarding environmental responsibility. Additionally, cognitive legitimacy pressures from institutional investors, who increasingly value sustainability and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria in investment decisions, further compel firms to align supplier choices with environmentally sustainable practices.

    Further heterogeneity analyses reveal that the effect of Green Factory certification on supplier selection is notably more pronounced in heavily polluting industries, state-owned enterprises, large-scale corporations, and firms managed by executives with explicit environmental backgrounds. These entities, facing heightened scrutiny and greater legitimacy pressures, exhibit stronger motivations to proactively adjust their procurement decisions. Extended analyses also indicate that the Green Factory designation facilitates the establishment of strategic supply chain alliances, specifically "green alliances" and "hightech alliances," as evidenced by substantial increases in procurement from, and sales to, environmentally friendly and technologically advanced firms within their top-tier supplier and customer networks. Collectively, these findings underscore the importance of legitimacy theory in explaining corporate strategic behavior within supply chains. The study not only contributes theoretically by integrating legitimacy theory into the supply chain literature but also provides practical guidance for firms striving for greener supply chain practices. Furthermore, the results offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking to establish effective frameworks for environmental oversight and green procurement strategies.

    The spillover effect of production networks is an important source of innovation for SMEs. This paper uses the customer-supplier relationship data of Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2016 to match the customs data to examine how indirect exports affect the breakthrough innovation of enterprises. The results show that: (1) There is a U-shaped relationship between the scale of indirect exports and breakthrough innovation. When the scale of indirect exports of enterprises does not reach the critical value， the risks of uncertain demand and interest encroachment are too large， which inhibits the innovation momentum of enterprises and is not conducive to breakthrough innovation. When the scale of indirect exports exceeds the critical value， it will significantly promote the breakthrough innovation of enterprises. (2) Mechanism analysis shows that the R&D capability and government subsidies strengthen the U-shaped relationship between indirect exports and breakthrough innovation by improving the absorption degree of customer spillover effect and alleviating the financial pressure of enterprises. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that there is a significant U-shaped relationship between indirect exports and breakthrough innovation for small and medium-sized enterprises， non-state-owned enterprises， enterprises with higher R&D investment in their regions and high-tech enterprises. Enterprises on the right side of the critical point of indirect export scale can effectively promote enterprises to expand the boundaries of innovation and carry out breakthrough innovation. This paper shows the role of enterprises in using domestic production networks for indirect export to enhance innovation capabilities，which provides important enlightenment for in-depth understanding of China's trade profits and promoting the implementation of innovation-driven development strategy.