Secondly, China's implementation of reciprocal tariffs on the United States could not only significantly reduce the negative impacts on China's GDP, household income and consumption, terms of trade and total output, but also significantly reduce the GDP, household income and consumption, imports and exports, terms of trade, net investment income and total output of the United States.

    Thirdly, If China increase its Household consumption rate by 2%, it will not only eliminate the negative impacts of the 125% tariffs imposed by China and the United States on China's GDP, household income and consumption, but also significantly reduce the impacts on China's imports, terms of trade, net investment income and total output. 

    The paper provides practical enlightenment and policy reference for China to effectively respond to the US tariff war.

    Developing new quality productivity is an inherent requirement and a crucial focal point for promoting high-quality development, and innovation-driven policies can foster innovation ecosystems conducive to the development of new quality productivity across different regions. This paper employs the national innovative city pilot as a quasi-natural experiment, utilizing panel data from prefecture-level and above cities between 2006 and 2021 to construct a difference-in-differences model. It investigates the impact mechanism of innovation-driven policies on new quality productivity from the perspective of innovative resources flow. The key findings of this paper are as follows: (1) Innovation-driven policies can significantly foster the development of new quality productivity. (2) The net inflow of innovative resources brought about by innovation-driven policies in pilot cities can significantly improve the level of new quality productivity development. (3) The attention given by prefecture-level governments to the development of new quality productivity positively moderates the promotional effect of innovation-driven policies on new quality productivity. (4) In eastern and western prefecture-level cities, large-scale cities,non-resource-dependent cities, cities with superior business environments, and key environmentally protected cities,innovation-driven policies exhibit a more pronounced catalytic effect on the development of new quality productivity. Therefore, to accelerate the formation of new quality productivity, it is essential to refine the monitoring and evaluation index system, optimize the allocation of innovative resources, and implement differentiated policies based on urban endowments to achieve coordinated development of new quality productivity across cities.

    Inefficient utilization of rural collective assets and insufficient mobility of property rights are key factors impeding the rise of rural household income levels. The reform of the rural collective property rights system provides an important opportunity to improve rural household income. Based on data from four periods of the China Household Finance Survey from 2013 to 2019, this study evaluates the policy effects of the rural collective property rights reform from a micro perspective using a multi-period difference-in-differences method. Benchmark regression results show that the reform significantly increases the total income level of rural households and has a significant positive effect on wage income among income sources.
    Additional robustness tests further validate the reliability of the benchmark regression results.Heterogeneity analysis reveals significant differences in policy effects along three dimensions: whether the village collectives in which households are located have special industries, the distance of the village collectives from the county center,and the level of total household income. These results suggest that the impacts of the reform are not static but depend on specific local and household conditions. Mechanism analysis further shows that the reform of the rural collective property rights system significantly increases the total income and wage income of rural households by optimizing the industrial structure.
However, the reform does not significantly affect rural household income levels through agricultural pathways, highlighting the limitations of the initial scope of the reform.
    The study concludes that the reform of the rural collective property rights system plays an important role in promoting rural household income levels. However, its policy objectives have not yet been fully realized because the institutional mechanisms were not perfected in the early stages of the reform. These findings provide important policy implications for establishing a long-term mechanism for raising rural household income and for deepening the reform of the rural collective property rights system, emphasizing the need to develop customized strategies for different rural contexts to maximize the impact of the reform.

    Inter-enterprise entrusted loans have long been the largest component of shadow banking in China. Improving the institutional regulation of entrusted loans activities is conducive to promoting the healthy development of entrusted loans, preventing capital from deviating from the real economy to the virtual economy, and thus better playing the role of serving the real economy. Taking the implementation of the new entrusted loans regulation as an exogenous shock, this paper utilizes a sample of listed firms during the period of 2015-2020 to explore the microeconomic effects of the policy of strict regulation of shadow banking. The results suggest that the strict regulation of shadow banking has real economy effects, and the new regulation policy on entrusted loans has significantly increased firms investment, especially those engaged in high-interest entrusted loans. This is mainly due to the fact that the new regulation policy on entrusted loans can inhibit corporate entrusted loans activities and effectively reduce the speculative space for entrusted loans, thus generating a reverse crowding-out effect.In addition, the new regulation on entrusted loans also has the policy effect of regulating the source of entrusted loan funds and clarifying the business orientation of principals, and these effects are more obvious in regions where informal finance is more active. The results of this paper clarify the implementation effect of the new regulation on entrusted loans from the perspective of supply-side firms, which not only expands the research horizon of entrusted loans, but also refines the research scope of strict financial regulation, and provides theoretical references and micro-evidence for improving the quality of financial services to the real economy.

    The governance of credit rating inflation is a crucial safeguard for preventing and mitigating financial risks. However, as credit assessment frameworks progressively expand to encompass non-financial dimensions such as ESG , credit rating agencies now confront challenges arising from market information environment complexities—particularly those induced by ESG rating divergences. Grounded in an information environment perspective, this study empirically examines the impact mechanisms of ESG rating divergences on credit rating inflation, utilizing data from A-share bond-issuing listed companies in China between 2015 and 2023. Our findings reveal that ESG rating divergences significantly elevate issuer credit ratings and exacerbate rating inflation. These conclusions remain robust even after employing instrumental variable approaches and addressing competing explanations through multiple robustness tests. Further analysis demonstrates that this phenomenon is primarily driven by interest alignment between rating agencies and issuers. Specifically, under the dominant "issuer-pays" market structure, ESG rating divergences amplify corporate demand for rating acquisition while intensifying market information asymmetry; both mechanisms collectively induce credit rating inflation. Notably, constraints from foreign-invested rating institutions, media supervision of issuers, and enhanced regional legal frameworks are shown to effectively mitigate such overvaluation caused by ESG divergences. These findings offer critical implications: Bond market investors should exercise heightened caution regarding ESG rating divergence. Simultaneously, regulatory authorities may leverage these insights to strengthen financial supervision and advance the high-quality development of the bond market.

    Export quality upgrading is an essential path to building a strong trade nation. The Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance demonstrated by enterprises in their sustainable development process serves as a crucial factor in promoting China's export quality upgrading. This paper establishes a monopolistic competition model and utilizes export data from listed companies during 2009-2016 to explore the impact of ESG performance on export quality.
    The research findings indicate that ESG performance significantly promotes enterprise export quality upgrading. After addressing endogeneity issues and controlling for potential biases in variables, models, and samples, the conclusions remain robust. The mechanism analysis reveals that ESG performance influences export quality through both supply-side and demand-side pathways.

    On the supply side, ESG performance enhances export quality by improving productivity and green innovation levels.Companies with superior ESG performance typically invest more resources in technological innovation and sustainable production processes, which directly contributes to product quality improvement. The emphasis on environmental responsibility often leads to the adoption of cleaner production technologies and more efficient resource utilization, resulting in higherquality products that meet international standards.

    On the demand side, ESG performance facilitates export quality upgrading by reducing operational costs and adjusting ESG locational advantages. Enterprises with strong ESG practices often experience lower long-term operational costs through improved resource efficiency, reduced waste, and decreased regulatory compliance expenses. Additionally, these companies can strategically position themselves in markets where ESG considerations are highly valued, creating competitive advantages in specific geographical regions.

    Further analysis reveals that ESG performance also generates product price enhancement effects and quality dynamic improvement effects. This suggests that favorable ESG performance provides enterprises with greater "bargaining power" inoverseas markets and amplifies their "resource reallocation effect." Companies with strong ESG credentials can command premium prices for their products as international consumers increasingly value sustainable and responsibly produced goods.Moreover, the positive reputation associated with superior ESG performance creates a virtuous cycle that encourages continuous quality improvement and innovation.
    This paper contributes to the research on export quality determinants from both theoretical logic and empirical evidence perspectives, offering a novel viewpoint for understanding the factors driving export quality. The findings have significant practical implications for promoting high-quality development of China's foreign trade economy and accelerating the construction of a strong trade nation. By highlighting the importance of ESG performance in export quality upgrading, this research provides valuable insights for policymakers and business leaders seeking to enhance China's competitive position in global markets through sustainable and responsible business practices.

    Promoting the organic connection between farmers and modern agriculture and achieving stable income growth for farmers is an important part of the “three rural” work in the new era. Based on the perspective of factor aggregation, this article regards national level modern agricultural industrial parks as a quasi natural experiment, and uses a progressive difference-in-differences model to examine the impact of modern agricultural industrial parks on farmers' stable income growth. The research conclusion shows that modern agricultural industrial parks can significantly reduce fluctuations in farmers' income and promote stable income growth for farmers. Mechanism testing has found that the creation of modern agricultural industrial parks can achieve factor aggregation, fully empower the integration of labor and capital factors, accelerate land circulation, improve agricultural labor productivity, and reduce negative externalities caused by agricultural environmental pollution, thereby suppressing income fluctuations for farmers. Heterogeneity testing found that the inhibitory effect of modern agricultural industrial parks on farmers' income fluctuations is more pronounced in areas with abundant human and material capital, higher industrial structure and basic public service levels, as well as in counties where major grain producing and non major grain selling areas are located.These research results enrich the traditional factor allocation theory and empirical evidence, providing a basis for the differentiated layout of modern agricultural industrial parks in the future “15th Five Year Plan”, and offering Chinese solutions for developing countries to overcome the vulnerability of small-scale agricultural production through park based paths.

    Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a critical driver of China's digital economy, with its integration into industries such as finance, healthcare, manufacturing, and retail accelerating under national policy support. The 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans emphasize the strategic importance of AI, encouraging deep integration with the real economy and promoting high-quality development. However, despite the potential benefits, the high costs and uncertainties associated with AI-driven transformation led some companies to adopt opportunistic behaviors. Rather than committing to substantial investment, these firms may engage in concept speculation—manipulating textual disclosures to exaggerate their involvement in AI without genuine implementation. Such hype exacerbates information asymmetry, fosters speculative market sentiment, and may be ex‐ ploited by insiders, especially majority shareholders with privileged access to information. Uncovering the mechanism through which AI-related concept speculation influences majority shareholders' share reductions is of great significance for regulating corporate information disclosure, curbing opportunistic reductions by major shareholders, and preventing systemic risks in capital markets. This paper constructs an AI concept speculation index using text analysis methods and, from the perspectives of information asymmetry and investor bounded rationality, examines the impact of AI concept speculation on major shareholders' share reductions. Empirical tests are conducted using data from Ashare listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges between 2012 and 2020. The results show that majority shareholders are more likely to sell their shares in response to corporate hyping behavior. This tendency is particularly evident in firms with a higher proportion of individual investors, greater stock price volatility, and higher levels of earnings management. Moreover, majority shareholders are more inclined to reduce their holdings when stock prices are relatively elevated. Share reductions by majority shareholders in firms engaged in AI hype increase the risk of stock price crashes, ultimately harming the interests of small and medium-sized investors. The media can play a critical role in identifying such hyping behaviors and providing early warnings to protect retail investors. This study expands the literature on insider trading by introducing AI concept speculation as a novel and underregulated channel through which majority shareholders execute opportunistic reductions. Based on the findings, it offers concrete policy recommendations to strengthen the regulation of AI-related hype and the stock-selling activities of majority shareholders. Ultimately, it provides insights for promoting enterprises to achieve genuine AI transformation and upgrading,thereby ensuring that technological development is rooted in substance rather than speculation.