As an important issue in the digital age, the governance of cross-border data flows is becoming a hot spot for international cooperation in the digital age. The current world economy has shifted from focusing on the flow of goods and currency to focusing on the flow of information. The seamless transboundary movement of data underpins economic globalization, fosters advancements in novel IT, and is pivotal for shaping a harmonious global community.However, there is still an impossible triangle in the cross-border flow of data, that is, the three aspects of data autonomy, data protection, and data flow cannot be satisfied at the same time. How to balance the relationship between the three is an unavoidable problem in building a cross border data flow governance system.
During the “Subprime Crisis” in the United States, many countries introduced large-scale fiscal and monetary policies to guide economic recovery. These policies stimulated economic growth to a certain extent, but a new phenomenon was that inflation did not rise, and remained low. The weakening linkage between output and inflation means that the slope of the Phillips curve is no longer steep, which is the most famous hypothesis namely the “flattening Phillips curve” in the past decade. However, after the outbreak of the COVID-19, the global economy fell into recession again. Intermittent interruptions in the supply chains of various countries triggered extremely serious supply shocks. The weakening expectations of residents and enterprises led to a rapid decline in effective demand. These factors led to a significant rise in inflation rates in various countries again. It seems that the current Phillips curve shape can be no longer described as ‘flattened’,and it is likely to steepen at an extremely fast pace, making the linkage between output and inflation more complex. Therefore, a restudy of the Phillips curve is of crucial theoretical and practical significance.
This paper comprehensively identifies the shape evolution of China’s Phillips curve under different stages of business cycle, and conducts a deep discussion on how to program the path of economic recovery by desirable macroeconomic policies.The conclusions are as follows: First, a slowing down economic growth rate, unilateral changes in inflation, and the shift from globalization to de-globalization are the three core factors that lead to the shape evolution of the Phillips curve. Second, the specific performances of China’s Phillips curve in different stages of business cycle are as follows: the curve slope is steeper in the upwards phase of business cycle, while it shows a flattening trend during the contraction stage of business cycle. Third,there are significant differences between different macroeconomic policies to program economic recovery path, among which a gradual regulation of price-based monetary policy combined with fiscal policy is a beneficial attempt to guide a steady recovery of economy under current stage. Faced with the dual contraction pressure of output and inflation, it is of great significance to appropriately correct the substitution relationship between output and inflation, as well as to shape a steep slope of Phillipscurve, which is benefit for guiding the economy to recover along a safe path, thus avoiding the recurrence of a classical economic crisis.
Our findings are meaningful for stabilizing economic growth, promoting economic recovery, and preventing classical economic crises. In the current stage of economic recovery, policy authorities still need to maintain a moderately loose tune of monetary policy regulation, while establishing a benign complementary mechanism between various macroeconomic policies.When stepping into the period of economic recovery acceleration, policy authorities should conduct real-time monitoring of macroeconomic fundamentals, gradually weaken policy strength, and avoid the risk of economic overheating caused by policy overshoot. In addition, the government should continue making efforts to expand domestic demand, especially stimulating consumption and stabilizing investment, as well as cultivating long-term demand momentum, so as to promote the synergetic recovery of economic growth and inflation to a reasonable level.
Under the background of increasingly intensified and complicated international competition, the technology blockade of the great-powers has become a realistic problem of crucial importance for China. The United States has included a large number of Chinese enterprises to the Entity List of export administrations since 2018, restricting the export of specific commodities to Chinese enterprises. These kinds of commodities include raw materials, components and equipment containing key technologies which are necessary for the production process. As the key technologies are relatively hard for other countries to imitate and master, export administrations of the United States may cause the production process of Chinese firms being involved in the Entity List unable to complete because of lacking materials with key technologies. Under this circumstances, other unfinished goods involved in the production process and not imported from the United States have to backlog within the enterprise and unable to change into finished goods on time. Thus, inventory efficiency of Chinese enterprises being involved into the Entity List may be reduced. Based on the above analysis, using the cases of Chinese firms being added to the Entity List of export administrations as exogenous shocks, we conduct a difference-in-differences analysis to examine the impact of export administrations of the United States on inventory efficiency of firms being involved in the Entity List. We find that export administrations have significantly reduced inventory efficiency of Chinese firms being involved in the Entity List. Compared with firms not involved in the Entity List, firms suffered from export administrations of the United States have more proportion of unfinished goods and longer days inventory outstanding. The heterogeneity analysis shows that firms with higher switching costs show less resilient in export administrations, namely the negative impact of export administrations on inventory efficiency is greater for firms with higher supply chain concentration, lower degree of diversification, and fewer overseas import channels. Further analysis reveals that the financial support of government and stronger innovation capabilities of firms can mitigate the negative impact of export administrations on firms' inventory efficiency. Our study provides theoretical and practical implications for taking countermeasures against Sino-U.S. trade friction, maintaining the security of China's industrial chains and moving faster to achieve China's greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology.