The degree to which the central bank fulfills its policy objective commitments can change the expectations guiding capability and affect the achievement of policy expected objectives, thereby influencing the effectiveness of monetary policy and the consistency in macroeconomic policy orientation. This paper constructs a semi-structural model that includes a nonlinear endogenous central bank credibility generation mechanism to measure the impact of the central bank's expectations guiding capability on macroeconomic regulation. It explores the impact mechanism of central bank credibility on the effectiveness of monetary policy through dynamic numerical simulation and comparative analysis. Furthermore, it examines the composition factors of central bank credibility in China and its heterogeneous effects under different regulatory objectives using an extended "inflation-output" dual-objective policy framework.
The study finds that central bank credibility exhibits asymmetry depending on the direction in which policy objectives deviate from their commitments, with greater credibility losses occurring when inflation exceeds the target level. The existence of central bank credibility tends to amplify the amplitude of fluctuations and the inertia of changes in macroeconomic variables, thereby affecting the effectiveness and duration of policies. Moreover, it impacts the central bank's multi-objective dynamic equilibrium and the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation. The fluctuation of credibility in China are closely related to the fulfillment of inflation target commitments, while the achievement of output targets has a relatively smaller impact on central bank credibility. When the economy is operating smoothly and the level of central bank credibility is high, a central bank credibility mechanism oriented towards a single inflation target should be adopted. Conversely, when the economy is unstable or the level of central bank credibility is low, a central bank credibility mechanism based on multiple targets is preferable. This approach represents a better choice for policymakers to balance social welfare and the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation in the policy implementation process.
In the future, it is essential to further enhance the stability and continuity of monetary policy and establish a normalized two-way dynamic communication mechanism to guide market expectations rationally. At the same time, in the process of monetary policy adjustment, the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of central bank credibility, as well as the differing emphases placed by policymakers and the public on various policy targets, should be fully considered. By optimizing the tradeoffs between social welfare and the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, the overall effectiveness and quality of monetary policy implementation can be improved.
In the context of supply-side structural reform and the prevention of financial risks, it is important to understand how macro financial leverage volatility affects enterprise innovation. Such understanding can not only contribute to effective macroeconomic policy design but also play a role in facilitating China's transition toward high-quality economic growth. This paper theoretically elaborates on the effect of macro financial leverage volatility on enterprise innovation from the perspective of "Financing Effect" and "Expectation Effect", and validates it using panel data of A-share listed companies in China from 2007 to 2017.
This paper reveals several key findings. First, macro financial leverage volatility significantly inhibits enterprise innovation. To be more specific, when macro financial leverage volatility increases, innovation inputs (measured by R&D intensity and R&D scale) and innovation outputs (reflected in patent applications and grants) both exhibit significant declines. This result remains robust after a series of robustness checks and endogeneity tests. Second, the impact of macro financial leverage volatility on enterprise innovation is channeled through "Financing Effect" and "Expectation Effect". When "Financing Effect" comes into play, enterprises with higher financing constraints and greater information asymmetry tend to reduce their R&D intensity more. When "Expectation Effect" is at play, enterprises with lower risk-bearing capacity and risk-averse executives tend to reduce their R&D intensity more. Third, the effect of macro financial leverage volatility on different types of enterprise innovation is heterogeneous. Compared with "Low-risk Innovation", macro financial leverage volatility has a greater negative impact on "High-risk Innovation". In other words, when macro financial leverage volatility increases, the number of patent applications (and patent grants) for invention patents and utility model patents decline significantly, while for design patents remain largely unaffected. Fourth, an increase in macro financial leverage volatility reduces the efficiency of enterprise innovation. Fifth, the innovation of small and medium-sized enterprises is more sensitive to macro financial leverage volatility.
Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward policy suggestions for the coordination of financial risk prevention and innovation-driven strategy. On the one hand, the government should enhance the dynamic management of macro financial leverage to ensure its fluctuations remain fundamentally stable. In this way, excessive macro financial leverage volatility can be avoided, thereby reducing the negative impact of macro shocks to micro enterprises. This requires the government to implement a prudent and orderly financial leverage regulation strategy, which helps maintain financial stability. On the other hand, the government should adopt flexible and differentiated fiscal support and tax incentives. This will help enterprises, particularly high-tech enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises, to alleviate the internal and external financing constraints. Under these circumstances, enterprises will have more incentives to innovate, and in turn, support the highquality growth of China's economy.
Under the increasingly complex and uncertain competitive environment, the integrated interaction between exclusive intellectual property and unified technological standards not only helps enterprises explore the innovative value of intellectual property and technical standards, but also facilitates the construction of new competitive strategies that synergize the characteristics and advantages of both.
This study begins with literature review to interpret the multiple uncertainty characteristics of external environments and their impacts on Chinese enterprises' internationalization, explores the complementarity and substitutability mechanisms among patents, trademarks, and trade secrets, and clarifies the applicable scopes of different technical standards in competitive strategies. Through multiple-case comparative analysis, it examines the main outcomes and conditions of integrating patents, trademarks, and trade secrets with technical standards, revealing the formation mechanism of intellectual property standardization strategies.
The research findings demonstrate that: (1) The complementary nature of intellectual property protections (patents and trade secrets) enables enterprises to select appropriate technical standard forms according to diverse market demands; (2) The competitive advantages of intellectual property standardization strategies primarily depend on standardization duration, diffusion breadth, and innovation height, which respectively reflect the persistence, expansibility, and innovativeness of competitive advantages; (3) The strategic objective lies in cultivating synergistic application capabilities between intellectual property and standards to capture added-value; (4) Effective strategy formulation requires leveraging characteristic attributes and interaction mechanisms of different intellectual property types and technical standards, combined with technological innovation advantages, market demand features, and competitive positioning; (5) Three formation patterns emerge - closed, semi-open, and open models, with the open model facilitating the reconstruction of standard innovation ecosystems.
The research suggests that Chinese high-tech enterprises should emphasize non-patent intellectual properties like trademarks and trade secrets to mitigate weaknesses in overseas patent layout. Meanwhile, they should capitalize on domestic advantages including massive market scale and cost-effective technological capabilities, integrating these late-mover advantages with technical standards (particularly de facto standards) to enhance discourse power and competitiveness in emerging industries' dominant design standard competitions.