Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency has signaled a decisive recalibration of industrial and trade policy,anchored in the logic of economic nationalism. This paper situates these policy shifts within the dual frameworks of geopolitical political economy and new trade theory to reveal the contradictions between domestic political imperatives and global economic rationality. Central policy instruments—including reciprocal tariffs, the America First memoranda on trade and investment, and the deliberate weakening of multilateral institutions—are shown to constitute an integrated strategy aimed at restoring U.S. dominance in global value chains. Yet, the reshoring agenda exacerbates structural costs: elevated labor and production expenses have reinforced inflationary pressures, tariff proliferation has eroded supply chain efficiency, and regulatory rollback has amplified systemic financial and environmental risks. Simultaneously, U.S. attempts to impose technological embargoes and fragment global governance have accelerated trends toward multipolarity and regional economic reorganization.
From a strategic perspective, we argue that China faces both heightened risks and latent opportunities. American efforts at decoupling and coercive leverage are undermined by the deep interdependence of global production networks and the adaptive capacity of emerging economies. China's effective response requires a proactive strategy that integrates countermeasures with long-term structural transformation. Domestically, cultivating demand-led growth can transform China's super-large market into a platform for continuous technological upgrading. In the technological domain, a strengthened national innovation system must prioritize breakthroughs in bottleneck sectors, leveraging state-led coordination to reduce dependence on external chokepoints. Externally, diversification of supply chain nodes across Asia, Africa, and Latin America can mitigate decoupling risks, while financial innovations—including the expansion of cross-border RMB settlements and the digitalization of currency flows—can gradually erode the structural asymmetry of dollar hegemony. Finally, active engagement in rulemaking contests—through initiatives in digital trade, carbon governance, and multilateral development financing—can enable China to reshape the institutional foundations of global economic order.
The analysis demonstrates that the U.S. trajectory under Trump is not merely a continuation of protectionist impulses but reflects a deeper structural collision between hegemonic preservation and the centrifugal forces of globalization. In the short run, these measures may bolster domestic political legitimacy, yet in the long run they risk self-weakening by raising costs, alienating allies, and accelerating systemic fragmentation. For China, the challenge lies in converting pressure into impetus: consolidating resilience at home while expanding room for maneuver abroad. This study contributes to the literature by bridging insights from political economy and trade theory, offering a comprehensive account of U.S. policy contradictions and China's adaptive responses. More broadly, it underscores that the future of global governance will hinge on four interlocking arenas of competition — technological sovereignty, supply chain control, financial leadership, and rule-making authority. The outcome of this contest will not only determine the trajectory of Sino-U.S. rivalry but also shape the contours of the emerging multipolar order.
Enhancing the modernization level of industrial and supply chains is not only a key task for accelerating the development of modern industrial systems and promoting the upgrading of the economic structure, but also a critical driver for building core competitiveness at the enterprise, industry, and national levels.Strengthening the stability of supply chains and improving the innovation capabilities of firms within these chains are important at both the macro level of national strategy and the micro level of corporate operations. In addition, the social networks of top executives play a pivotal role in the formation and maintenance of relationships between firms and their supply chain partners. The career experiences of executives in upstream and downstream firms serve as an effective channel for shaping social connections, exerting significant influence on corporate economic behavior. For companies, the ability to utilize the information and resources brought by executives with supply chain experiences to boost innovation is a question of significant theoretical and practical significance.
Based on upper echelons theory and social capital theory, this paper uses executives' resume information and the names of top five suppliers and customers disclosed by China's A-share listed companies to identify the executives with supply chain experience(SCEs), examining the impact of executives' work experience in companies' major suppliers or customers on corporate innovation and its influence mechanism. It is found that executives with supply chain experience have a significantly positive effect on the firm's innovation. The results are robust and reliable after alleviating endogeneity concerns and a series of robustness checks. As for the mechanism, on the one hand, executives' work experience from the firm's major suppliers or customers can reduce the information asymmetries within the supply chain. On the other hand, executives with supply chain experience can increase mutual trust between the company and its supply chain partners, thus raising the firm's innovation. Executives' position, the length of the supplier-customer relationship may influence the effect of SCEs on corporate innovation. Besides, SCEs also increase the stability of cooperation among supply chain.
The contributions of this paper are as follows: First, this paper refines the concept of executives' supply chain career experiences by shifting the focus from upstream and downstream industries, as examined in prior literature, to specific upstream and downstream firms. This approach enables more precise identification and enriches the body of research on upper echelons theory. Second, the paper extends the scope of executives' social connections from within the focal firm to the broader upstream and downstream networks within the supply chain. By examining how executives' career experiences with key suppliers or customers influence corporate behaviors, it contributes to the literature on corporate innovation from the perspective of supply chain social capital. Third, the findings of this study suggest that firms pursuing long-term development should attach importance to the development of their executive teams and make use of the social networks of team members to foster supply chain collaboration. These insights offer valuable guidance for the deep integration of innovation chains, industrial chains,capital chains, and talent chains.
In recent years, Chinese economy has faced multiple challenges, including structural transformation, financial cycle fluctuations, and adaptive changes in market entities, making corporate debt default risks increasingly prominent. In the context of Chinese unique "relational society"; exploring the factors influencing corporate debt defaults from the perspective of the macro social network formed by micro-level factors such as joint shareholding among chain shareholders is crucial for scientifically and effectively addressing corporate debt default issues and promoting high-quality economic development in China.
Based on this, this paper takes the listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares in China from 2007 to 2022 as research samples, empirically examining the impact of shareholder relationship networks on corporate debt default risk from a social network perspective. Empirical studies show that shareholder relationship networks can effectively suppress corporate debt default risk. After a series of robustness and endogeneity tests, the conclusion remains valid.
Mechanism analysis indicates that shareholder relationship networks can inhibit corporate debt default risk through information "empowerment" and reputation "driving"; by ensuring timely disclosure, reliable information transmission, fulfilling social responsibilities, and positive media coverage. Further analysis shows that micro, meso, and macro levels all influence the negative correlation between shareholder relationship networks and corporate debt default risk. In companies with diverse equity structures and those facing significant product competition, the inhibitory effect of shareholder relationship networks on corporate debt default risk is stronger; the introduction of the new Securities Law has significantly increased the cost of debt default, thereby enhancing the inhibitory effect of shareholder relationship networks on corporate debt default risk; ultimately, the suppression of corporate debt default risk by shareholder relationship networks will contribute to the long-term sustainable development of enterprises. The main contributions of this paper are as follows: First, it enriches the literature on corporate debt default risk, providing a new perspective for research.
This paper breaks free from the existing research that focuses solely on the characteristics of the company itself and its external environment, incorporating inter-corporate equity relationships into the micro-level framework for analyzing corporate debt defaults. It further opens up the "black box"; of how shareholder relationship networks, with their macro features, influence corporate behavior. Second, based on the economic consequence of debt default risk, this paper clarifies the role of shareholder relationship networks within the company. The dual nature of shareholder relationship networks has led to some debate regarding their effectiveness in promoting corporate governance. This paper explores the mechanisms by which shareholder relationship networks affect corporate debt default risk from both information "empowerment"; and reputation "driving" perspectives. This is not only a revalidation of the collaborative governance of shareholder relationship networks but also a new breakthrough in mitigating corporate debt default risks. Third, this paper identifies different characteristics of the relationship between shareholder relationship networks and corporate debt default risk under various conditions at micro, meso,and macro levels, providing a theoretical basis for companies to utilize shareholder relationship networks and investors to avoid corporate debt default risks. It also offers practical support for policymakers to create a harmonious and trustworthy social environment, promote the improvement of a sound legal system, and facilitate steady economic growth.
In 2025, Professor Joel Mokyr was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his seminal contributions to understanding the conditions under which technological progress sustains long-term economic growth. Centering on the British Industrial Revolution and the broader "Great Divergence" between East and West, Professor Mokyr offers a series of profound insights into the dynamics of historical development.
According to Mokyr, human economic history is best viewed as a dynamic competition between positive and negative feedback loops. The Industrial Revolution fundamentally transformed this process by making innovation the primary driver of economic growth, thereby ushering humanity into a self-reinforcing cycle of knowledge creation, technological advancement,and material prosperity—the "Great Enrichment". Britain's distinctiveness lay in the emergence of a class of "elite craftsmen", individuals equipped with the practical expertise to translate inventive ideas into applied technologies, thus ensuring that innovation generated tangible economic impact. At the core of this transformation was the rise of "useful knowledge". The "Industrial Enlightenment" cultivated both an enduring belief in progress and a new zeitgeist that valued present knowledge as superior to that of the past. It also institutionalized a set of mechanisms that promoted the production and diffusion of useful knowledge. Central to this scheme was the creation of effective incentives for generating new knowledge and the development of systems that made existing knowledge more accessible, transferable, and economically viable. Mokyr further traces the origins of this intellectual and institutional transformation to deeper historical forces. Since the Middle Ages, the distinctive European Marriage Pattern fostered the nuclear family structure, which in turn created local collective-action problems related to the provision of public goods. To address these challenges, voluntary associations and corporate bodies—such as guilds,universities, and learned societies—emerged as vital social organizations. These associations not only shaped Europe's enduring political, legal, and cultural institutions but also provided a uniquely favorable social environment for the Industrial Revolution, particularly in Britain.Such a combination of demographic, institutional, and cultural conditions, Mokyr argues, was largely absent in traditional China, giving rise to the "Great Reversal" and ultimately the "Great Divergence" between Europe and Asia.
In the context of a new technological and industrial revolution, Professor Joel Mokyr's historical reflections provide important intellectual inspiration for China's pursuit of advanced technological self-reliance and the cultivation of new quality productive forces.